zhang411190585 106.92.240.* 2015-10-08 17:14:48 |
8月份CPI达到2%,而一年期定期存款利率在经过过去一年央行的连续下调后,目前已降到1.75%,至此实际利率(定期存款利率减去CPI)为-0.25%。这意味着时隔5年后我国再次进入实际负利率时代。利率是经济金融体系的核心指标。在利率市场化快速推进的过程中,实际负利率凸显宏观经济下行压力较大以及央行政策操作的艰难。
1990年以来,我国实际负利率时期有四段。从形成机制上来讲,都是由于物资短缺或者经济过热引发通胀快速攀升到存款利率以上形成的,随着央行的紧缩货币政策逐步实施,实际利率都很快转正。
相比之下,本次负利率有所不同。尽管2014年底开始央行**降息降准,利率一路下行,但由于人口红利逐渐消退后的劳动力成本不断上升,正驱动通货膨胀率单边缓慢上行,以至于存款利率再度低于通货膨胀率。
本次实际负利率发生在宏观经济结构性与周期性共同主导的趋势性下行阶段。近年来实体经济去产能、去杠杆的任务较为艰巨,但实际上企业部门整体杠杆率却不降反升,由此形成两个关联的重要风险,即债务规模过大、社会融资成本过高。到2015年二季度为止,非金融业上市公司加权平均ROIC(全****率,是度量企业经营效率*重要的指标)已经低于5%,而加权平均融资成本在6%附近。
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